Archive for July, 2014


Pliocene – Present and the future: the 450 scenario

CO2 levels during Pliocene was 450 ppm and the sea level was +10 to + 30 m higher than today. It was then natural……….large volumes of CO2 escaped into the atmosphere from volcanoes and not from thermal power plants!!. The equatorial ocean SST was warmer. But now this increase in CO2 due to escape of large volume of CO2 from thermal power plants. Most of this CO2 is emitted by tropical countries……China being the leader followed by India. The primary energy production in the developing economy will increase by 89% by 2030. Coal will rule the economy until about 2015-2018 beyond which gas and oil will be the primary energy source. By 2025 India will take over Japan in oil imports and the demand increasing to 6 mb in 2030. Next to coal oil is a major contributor to the atmospheric CO2. For every MWh of energy produced oil emits 817 kg of CO2. With renewables, like geothermal, plying a major role by then, transportation sector will be the major contributor to CO2 in the atmosphere. By then atmosphere will be saturated with CO2 with the amount reaching little above 600 ppm. Reduction in coal usage will not drastically change this concentration as the ocean-atmospheric equilibrium process is slow and may take hundreds of years. Leaders at the Cancun summit did realise this magic number and build models around it. …..and named it “450 scenario”!! So we do expect sea level changes, abnormal warming of the equatorial ocean surface and climate related issue. The energy comfort today is a disaster to the future generation. By then Darwin’s theory will come into force and mankind will adopt itself to the new 450 scenario. It is a cycle….. animals do adopt why not humans!!