Prof D Chandrasekharam

It is interesting to read the news about China’s energy sector, in a recent article published in IEA journal, especially that supported by coal. A former scientist working with IEA analysed the coal utilization for electricity generation by China now and after 40 years. China has already announced that its coal utilization for electricity will peak between now and 2030 before it declines. China needs additional electricity to the tune of 2500 TWh in future. China will be prepared to face the challenge by offsetting coal use by nuclear and renewables. For its own good, China has to reduce CO₂ emissions by reducing coal utilization for electricity generation. China is utilizing GSHPs for cooling and heating the buildings and initiated a concentrated effort to reduce CO₂ emission. It has sufficient geothermal energy resources along its southern border and by the year 2040, China will be in a comfortable position in mastering the technique of harnessing the energy from the granites of Himalayas and the energy from water. Already the country started generating electricity from Brahmaputra river. Its eastern border, facing the sea will provide energy from wind. Besides all such sources, it has large volume of gas in the sea as well as along the southern border. In fact the country will be energy independent by 2040 while its neighbouring countries will be limping to cope-up with the demand. This situation arises due to the lack of planning and sound projections for future energy demand. The above analyses says that to meet 2500 TWh demand by 2040, China has to rise natural gas consumption by > 200 % and commission hundreds of nuclear power plants. This looks like a myopic view. The projected magnitude is large since by 2040 China will master the art of safely utilizing high level radioactive waste to create small generators that can be well within the control. Another 25 years!!….those who are analysing energy sector of China will not be living to witness the development or under development!!

The other side of the story from China’s Ministry of Land and Resources: The country has sizable amount of heat in shallow geothermal energy sources equivalent to 350 million tons of standard coal annually. If utilized for electricity generation it can generate 2.8 million GWh of electricity. After deducting the cost of electricity utilized for developmental activities, the geothermal energy sources could offset at least 250 million tons of coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions to the tune of 500 million tons. China has geothermal energy reserves equivalent to 853 billion tons of coal. Under the present available technology and economics, usable heat available in the country is equivalent to 640 million tons of coal and this will reduce 1.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide. In addition to the wet geothermal sources, China has EGS resources equivalent to 860 trillion tons of coal that can generate 7 trillion GWh of electricity. By 2040 EGS technology will be in place and China’s available energy from renewables (EGS) will be able to generate 7 trillion GWh of electricity which is several thousands times more than the country’s annual consumption. Numbers are big…after all they are all projections. But one should not forget that China proved its capability during 2008 Olympics. This event clearly showed that the country can pursue both economic development and clean environment. Children born now will be witnessing the real story and they should /will be reading the current projections with amusement. For the China’s future generation everything is in place. But for its neighbours, the development graph will be a plateau …now and then. If governments are not able to fix tariff for projects that passed the PPA stage, what kind of development we expect in the power sector?

At the second IEA ministerial meeting held in 2011 in New Delhi, India made tall claims……addition of 75 000 MWe at the rate of 15000 MWe a year in the running five year plan. Besides this, addition of 15000 MWe from renewables and 13000 MWe from captive power plants. Four years have passed….where are we now. Any number of zeros can be added…it is easy but the ground reality is abysmal. People who made the claim are not in the office! The country is back to square one. Like China, India’s numbers are large. China is able to deliver, hence those number are valuable. Take for example the solar PV supported power. Just Sunshine is not a prerequisite for Solar PV. Land and water are essential. All the MENA east countries have Sunshine better than any other country in the world. Beside good oil reserves, why the countries are not utilizing Solar PV for domestic consumption and divert the oil for export? “Solar power systems present challenges in hot dusty conditions: dust impairs operations and efficiency falls at temperatures above 30 °C. A number of research establishments in the Gulf region are working on ways to tackle these problems” says Christopher Seger, Global Energy Policy expert in IEA in a recent article in IEA Journal. According to Paolo Frankl, Head of IEA Renewable energy Division, two renewable energy technologies, although are at the lower end of development, promise potential of exploitation which are tens and thousands of times greater than the current global energy demand!. They are ocean energy and enhanced geothermal systems. This is China’s trump card. Compared to China, India’s granite resources are several folds greater.

As discussed and published in various forums, it is now happening……geothermal is taking off in a big way and the phrase ‘ power from your backyard’ is going to be a reality soon. For those “novice to geothermal’ the GEA has published a basic documents in its annual report. Those bureaucrats who are under the impression that “mining earth’s heat will cool the earth shortly and is not permitted and illegal” should read this document and see documentary on volcanoes that are erupting now . In fact I had to answer such innocent (should I call ignorant) questions on several occasions with the state govt. bureaucrats while I was explaining geothermal systems and its advantages and why India, like other countries, should take initiative to develop its geothermal resources. Now the world has gone several steps ahead and huge grants were granted for R & D in enhanced geothermal systems. About US$10 million has been granted for integrated Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) research and development in USA, reports a new item from the Geothermal Energy Association. Nearly 12 research institutes were awarded this grant. When we can reach Mars and mine the sea bed, drilling 3 to 4 km into the earth’s crust is not very difficult now. France did it, Australia did it, Germany did it for geothermal. Drilling technology together with the technology in creating heat exchanger in the granites have advanced and these two major processes are being mastered now. As reported earlier, countries like India have high heat generating granites like those occurring in Australia and Europe, that are huge clean energy source for future. The global geothermal installed capacity is going to jump to 13452 MWe in 2018 from the current 12013 MWe. The World Geothermal Congress 2015 is round the corner and we will get the exact update by April 2015. With EGS in place countries energy supply is endless. Right now the world is focussing on East African Rift Geothermal systems (EARG) ………it is going to grow in a big way and the estimated power is around 10,000 to 20,000 MWe. East Africa-America initiative is taken off now for geothermal and world can participate in this initiative………provided you have the requisite expertise!! This is no nonsense programme. Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania are the geothermal hot beds now. The EAR is propagating into the Tanzania craton initiated by a mantle plume sitting right below the centre of the craton. High heat flow values (~75mW/m²) are recorded over the craton that comprises granites and its equivalents. These granites have tremendous capacity to light the rural Tanzania with grid connected electricity in the near future. Each cubic kilometre of such granite has the capacity to generate about 42 x 10¹⁵ kWh of electricity. Kenya with its expertise in geothermal development will have major role in supplying major infrastructure facility to make Tanzania energy independent and save millions of hectors of forest that is being used traditionally as energy source. Geothermal energy will further save about 6 million metric tonnes of CO₂ emission(0.13 tonnes CO₂ per capita) in Tanzania and protect the ice-cap over the Mt Kilimanjaro. The forthcoming ArGeo C5 conference is going to be a hot geothermal platform for discussions on geothermal development in East Africa with participation from all the Heads of Govt. from Africa. Soon East Africa is going to be energy independent and free from carbon emissions. Perhaps, we can once again see thick ice cap over Kilimanjaro!! When oil rich countries are looking at geothermal energy resources to reduce CO₂ emissions and to conserve oil reserves by reducing domestic consumption, other non OECD countries will definitely develop this source to reduce oil imports to increase its GDP and become energy independent. EGS will do this trick in the coming decade.

IGA recently released ” Geothermal Exploration Best Practices” that forms a guide book for many countries involved in geothermal exploration. This guide book was prepared for IFC ( World Bank group) by the leading geothermal exploration company “GeothermEx” and the ownership of the book was transferred recently to IGA Service GmbH through IGA Board. Broadly this guide book is prepared in line with the ESMAP of the World Bank.

The book recommends a seven phase development process for geothermal resources although several countries have less than seven process as these countries have mastered this process for the last several decades. The guide book explains each phase in detail, thus bringing the right process of development, especially in countries that have joined the geothermal group in recent times.

In a recent paper published in “Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews” 2014, top fifteen countries that are generating geothermal energy and the CO₂ savings from these countries are listed. The amount of CO₂ savings through direct application varies from 1.9 billion kg (Finland) to 10.28 billion kg (Sweden). Surprisingly both the countries have no surface geothermal manifestation but the savings are from GHPs! In the same paper levalized costs (capital to unit cost) of conventional and renewable energy power systems are compared. Geothermal stands out!! Oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia, and UAE are looking at renewables to reduce CO₂ emissions that is going touch 750 billion Gg by 2020!!. The World Geothermal Congress is round the corner and new data and new technologies will emerge and the total electricity generated through geothermal will be revised. The information is going to be very encouraging and interesting.

In the recent past, due to IPCC mandate, several players claimed to have develop geothermal energy resources evaluation expertise, proposed several projects seeking govt. support for geothermal development. This is true especially in developing countries that have entering in to geothermal development activities. India is one such country where, based on initial reconnoitory reports conducted by national organizations in collaboration with international organizations like UNDP, several companies with no expertise in geothermal, gave tall claims on resource availability. The reconnoitory data was widely accepted till a Indo-Italian bilateral project jointly carried out by IITB and CNR ( Italian Academy of Science) conducted a detailed survey on all the geothermal provinces of India and brought out high quality strong data base on the chemistry of thermal waters and thermal gases of the above provinces and published in reputed international journals and discussed the same in the World geothermal Congresses since 1995. The data has been transferred to M/S GeoSyndicate Power Pvt. Ltd. the company incubated in IIT and now became an independent company based in Mumbai.

The Indo-Italian project followed the guide lines prescribed in the IGA guide book. In Indian literature several numbers have been published related to the potential that has been refuted because the publication lack of sound scientific basis. The heat flow values published during the rconnoitaey survey was not based on bore hole observation!! These data are now revised based on strong data based on bore holes and the values were published in a highly reputed international journals. Heat flow, thermal gradient, water flow in the wells/springs and aquifer parameters are required to estimate the geothermal potential of a province and site that later needs to be supported by exploratory drill holes. With out such investigation the results will be dubious. The stages in establishing a geothermal power plant are 1) Preliminary Survey, 2) Exploration, 3) Test drilling, 4) Project review and planning, 5) Field development 6) Power plant construction and 7) Commissioning and operation. This is like any other exploration methods. IGA is striving hard to bring out documents that will help geothermal scientists and engineers to establish a sound resource base based on strong data base.

CO₂ levels during Pliocene was 450 ppm and the sea level was +10 to + 30 m higher than today. It was then natural……….large volumes of CO₂ escaped into the atmosphere from volcanoes and not from thermal power plants!!. The equatorial ocean SST was warmer. But now this increase in CO₂ due to escape of large volume of CO₂ from thermal power plants. Most of this CO₂ is emitted by tropical countries……China being the leader followed by India. The primary energy production in the developing economy will increase by 89% by 2030. Coal will rule the economy until about 2015-2018 beyond which gas and oil will be the primary energy source. By 2025 India will take over Japan in oil imports and the demand increasing to 6 mb in 2030. Next to coal oil is a major contributor to the atmospheric CO₂. For every MWh of energy produced oil emits 817 kg of CO₂. With renewables, like geothermal, plying a major role by then, transportation sector will be the major contributor to CO₂ in the atmosphere. By then atmosphere will be saturated with CO₂ with the amount reaching little above 600 ppm. Reduction in coal usage will not drastically change this concentration as the ocean-atmospheric equilibrium process is slow and may take hundreds of years. Leaders at the Cancun summit did realise this magic number and build models around it. …..and named it “450 scenario”!! So we do expect sea level changes, abnormal warming of the equatorial ocean surface and climate related issue. The energy comfort today is a disaster to the future generation. By then Darwin’s theory will come into force and mankind will adopt itself to the new 450 scenario. It is a cycle….. animals do adopt why not humans!!

The Department of Energy & Climate Change, UK, has recently awarded £200000 for developing geothermal energy resources. Cheshire east Council bagged this grant fo geothermal exploration in Leighton area of Crewe. “This is fantastic news and we can now begin to undertake further research and understand this incredible energy resource deep beneath the ground here in Cheshire East” said council leader Cllr Michael Jones. The programme is to drill to a depth of 5 km to extract fluid with temperatures > 100 C.
Kenya will be doubling its generation capacity from Olkaria field this year. Its new field, Menegai is ready for generating 100 MWe this year. The cost is expected to be 7 US cents. “We expect to add 140 MW to the grid by March or April and 170 MW in July from Olkaria and a further 100 MW from Menengai in the course of this year” said, Cabinet Secretary, Energy and Petroleum, Davis Chirchir during his meeting with the International Geothermal Association Board of Directors in Manila last month.

Countries have realised that harnessing heat from earth is the best way to maintain hormony between environment and human civilization! Even the oil giants like Saudi Arabia is thinking in this terms and looking at its geothermal resources. Countries are becoming desperate to maintain progress in its GDP. With industrial and population growth there will be huge demand for water and energy in the near future. What we see now is the tip of the iceberg. More to come soon.
The greatest development is expected in non-OECD Asia where the electricity generation is expected to be of the order of 10,186 TWh in 2030 from the recent 3518 TWh in 2004. This correspond to an annual average increase on 4.2 %. In non OECD Asia, India and China have the highest absolute national electricity generation growths.
Low enthalpy geothermal resources were never in focus in the last decade. Now billions are being spent, as is the case with Cheshire East, to look for water with 100 C!!!! China, Indonesia, Australi, Europe, Central America, Japan, USA……….list never ends realised this truth. Baseload power, online supply, land requirements, cost, sustainability, low carbon emission…….are all in geothermal.

As published earlier, there are two energy sources, one the Sun and the Earth. We need a media to convert Sun’s energy to electric power. In the case of Earth’s we need small generators. Media to convert Sun’s energy is expensive while small generators can be bought off the shelf at a competitive cost. Perhaps when oil wells dry up mankind will certainly have to depend on this source, for certain!!